Chapter Ten: A Call for a New Paradigm
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Now that it is clear that solutions to the global warming problem must include a serious reconsideration of our mass consumption civilization, we ask "is it necessary for the present generation of humanity to take on a responsibility towards future generations?" In fact, a whole new field of study called environmental ethics has been created to address this matter. Do we have a responsibility to take charge of the environment for the unborn future generations? Do we have a moral obligation to cut down the consumption of fossil fuels to control the rising temperature of the Earth? Is it our duty to leave behind fossil fuel reserves for our children and our children's children? These and other questions are being discussed by scholars in the field of environmental ethics.
Let us take a moment to think about these questions. When we say "future generations", we are not talking about generations a thousand years from now. The likelihood that significant fossil fuel reserves will remain in a thousand years is small. In the year 3000, even if we wanted to cause global warming through the massive consumption of fossil fuel, we probably would not be able to do so. The generations whom we are talking about here are not so far in the future. We are talking about changes occurring fifty, one hundred, at most three hundred years from now. For the young generation of today, this is a problem that they may experience themselves. Even for the older generations, problems on this time scale will affect their children or grandchildren.
Of course, as a general principle we should extend our consideration to generations further in the future. However, in doing so we must remember that we are not discussing the fates of unknown and unrelated generations, but rather our direct descendants. This duty to our children may be common sense, but even if it is not, with a bit of reflection we hope that you will agree that assumption of that responsibility is a basic moral obligation.
From Now into the Future
At present, one third of the Earth's land surface is agricultural land and pastures, one third is forests, and one third is desert and tundra. Thus, humans have already exploited half of the arable land area. Fossil fuel reserves have also been greatly depleted. What is more, the massive consumption of industrial society that has caused this situation has increased rapidly in recent years. Of the total fossil fuel use during the several thousand year long history of human civilization, three fourths were consumed in the 50 years following the Second World War. Furthermore, in the major cities of every country, basic needs such as disposing waste garbage safely and cleanly, coping with the urban heat island effect, and the maintaining the supply clean tap water are becoming more and more difficult.
Oil tanker spills seem to have become common events. Desertification and species extinction are proceeding at accelerating rates. Once, as the ancient peoples sang in their songs about mother nature, the great wilderness, the endless sky, and the bottomless ocean, it was thought that the Earth was limitless. And in fact, considering the scale of resource use and the loads put on ecosystems at that time, the world supplies were indeed inexhaustible and thus the Earth was essentially limitless. Now, in the age we live, the Earth is without a doubt limited. We are confronted every day with the effects of exceeding these limits on the Earth's resources and ecosystem tolerance levels. The authors believe that the most symbolic of these effects is the rise of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. However, in any case we can no longer ignore the worldwide effects of our way of living. The fact that the Earth's atmosphere is not an endless sky is inescapable.
The basic cause for all of these problems is the human population of over five billion people and the rise of the material consumption per person. It seems clear that if we continue at this rate, our society will collapse. But what should we do? The answer is we must stabilize world population at a reasonable level by raising the standard of living in developing countries, and at the same time work together to build a society that not only does not rely on fossil fuels but is also highly efficient. Whether or not we can work together developing countries in achieving these goals without causing the collapse of those fragile economies will depend on the wisdom of humanity.
A formula for this relationship between population, material consumption, efficiency and the world environment has become popular recently in environmental economics. Let us consider more closely each of these quantities. Population is easy; it is just the number of people on the Earth. But how do these people exert an influence or "load" on the environment? Material consumption is the amount of goods consumed per person. Efficiency can be thought of as the amount of resources consumed or waste produced per unit of goods manufactured. If we multiple these quantities together we get the amount of resource consumption or environmental waste load on the Earth by humanity.
Let us try to imagine the society of the future. The year 2000, 2020... Have the majority of industrial manufacturers taken on the responsibility for recycling? Is an ideal indoor climate control system making a comfortable but efficient city a reality? Are the "Shoreline Projects" and the "OTOHIME" projects restoring green and biological diversity to the Earth? 2050, 2100... Is the Earth still beautiful? Or is it a hot, harsh planet where sea level rise has become a reality and threatens to take over the land? Is the basic form of energy nuclear, or perhaps solar? Or is the sole remaining fossil fuel - coal - being consumed in huge quantities, causing global warming and atmospheric pollution to continue to threaten humanity?
Nurturing Our Great Fortune
At one time, it was thought that there were canals on Mars. If you look at Mars through a telescope, you can see lines that certainly look like they could be canals. "Maybe there are living organisms and a civilization on Mars." I believe that this speculation was still around just forty years ago. But at the present, on planets that people can send rockets to, not a trace of life has been found. It is of course possible that life exists somewhere else in the universe. However, the possibility that we, or the generations with whom we are directly in contact, will discover such a planet is low. At the very least, it is certainly impossible that we could emigrate to such a planet. To humanity, the Earth is a planet that is the only one of its kind.
The Earth's biosphere occupies so narrow a layer around the Earth that if you were to draw the Earth with a compass, no matter how finely you sharpen the point of your pencil, the line would be too thick to represent the thickness of the biosphere. The existence of this biosphere upon which our civilization depends, depends in turn on the fact that liquid water exists in a stable form on Earth. We are here because we have been blessed with good fortune in the form of our water planet, a planet that is neither a world of scorching water vapor like Venus nor a world enveloped in ice like Mars, but rather a blue-green world of rivers, lakes and oceans. This good fortune is brought about by the combination of our planet's distance from the Sun and just the right amount of green house effect. It is well known that just a one degree change in sea water temperature can cause a huge difference in the size of hurricanes and typhoons. Global warming is not just the world's weather becoming a bit warmer. Global warming is something that, through alterations in conditions such as ocean currents, atmospheric wind patterns and sea level resulting from changes in the balances that determine these conditions on a global scale, has the potential to make a huge impact on the Earth.
Answering the global warming problem is not easy. However, fortunately many of the countermeasures to this problem lie in the same direction as the path that we must take whether or not we choose to address global warming. The life span of existing oil and natural gas reserves is on the order of decades. Coal reserves are abundant, so in total there may be sufficient fossil fuels for 100 to 200 years. However, when these reserves are used up there will be no more fossil fuels left.
Whether or not we choose to acknowledge the reality of global warming, the development of alternative energy to ensure a stable energy base is essential. Energy conservation will enable us to leave behind for the next generations precious fossil fuels that are important not only as a fuel source, but also as necessary ingredients for many of the products upon which we have grown to depend. Energy conservation is also essential in order to make more time for the development of alternative energy.
Furthermore, countermeasures such as the ideal regional cooling system can contribute to the solution of various urban environmental problems, such as the urban heat island effect. Recycling, which ranks highly among the energy conservation based countermeasures for global warming, is also an essential component for solving the garbage problem. In large cities, there really is nowhere left to put garbage. Recycling also contributes to the solution of the resource depletion problem. Greening of the desert and protection of forests act to maintain our blue-green planet and prevent desertification, so these actions go hand in hand with the basic, unspoken needs of humanity. Protection of natural habitats will undoubtedly help to maintain species diversity. The nurturing of mangrove forests and coral reefs will also help to continue this diversity that is so important to preserving the beauty of the Earth. Furthermore, these projects could help solve the problem of protein shortage in the world by supporting aquaculture.
The solution of the global warming problem lies in the same direction as the solutions of many of the other problems threatening the preservation of the plant Earth. Because of this, it is possible to use global warming as the center for the consideration of a new "planet Earth" paradigm. It is certain that the global warming problem is an enormously difficult problem for humanity. However, there is no mistake that the solution of this problem also contributes to the solutions of many other problems. The chance we are presented with to make the world a sustainable place for our children, their children and countless generations to come is a great opportunity that we must not ignore. The "planet Earth" paradigm will give us a new focal point for all the peoples of the entire world to work together for the common goal of making the world a better place to live.